Somalia in the Vortex: A Nation Grapples with Political Rupture, Resurgent Piracy, and Catastrophic Drought

MOGADISHU, 20 January 2026 – Somalia stands at a perilous crossroads, besieged by a convergence of crises that threaten its fragile stability. The Federal Government’s dramatic severing of security and port agreements with the United Arab Emirates this week underscores deep political fractures, even as the country contends with a alarming resurgence of piracy off its coast and a climate-driven hunger emergency affecting millions of its citizens.

Political Landscape Fractures Further

The Council of Ministers of the Federal Republic of Somalia, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Salah Ahmed Jama, terminated all port agreements and security pacts with the United Arab Emirates on Monday 19 January. Information Minister Daud Aways stated the decision followed a review that found Abu Dhabi had engaged in actions undermining Somalia’s sovereignty. The move signals a significant geopolitical realignment and follows the UAE’s reported shift of focus towards the self-declared Republic of Somaliland.

This rupture occurs against a backdrop of intense internal discord. The constitutional crisis triggered in March 2024, when parliament approved amendments shifting to a “one person, one vote” system and expanding presidential powers, remains unresolved. The semi-autonomous states of Puntland and Jubaland have suspended cooperation with Mogadishu, accusing the federal government of centralisation without consensus. Jubaland’s President Ahmed Madobe proceeded with a regional election defying the FGS in late 2024, leading to an arrest warrant from Mogadishu and brief armed clashes.

Simultaneously, the question of Somaliland continues to inflame tensions. Following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland last month, the breakaway region has entered a state of heightened security. Somalia’s Defence Minister, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, recently called for Saudi military intervention against Somaliland, a move Hargeisa condemned as an incitement to war.

Key Facts: Somalia’s Triple Crisis

Piracy Makes a Dangerous Return

After a decade of decline, Somali piracy has returned with renewed sophistication and range. The period from late October to November 2025 saw a coordinated campaign by Pirate Action Groups (PAGs) using hijacked dhows as “motherships” to attack vessels up to 800 nautical miles offshore. The most serious incident was the hijacking of the Maltese-flagged tanker Hellas Aphrodite on 6 November, 560 nautical miles southeast of Eyl. The crew survived by sheltering in a citadel until rescued by EU NAVFOR forces.

Analysts point to a confluence of drivers: international naval assets are diverted to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea; ransom payments remain lucrative (e.g., USD 5 million for MV Abdullah in 2024); and there is growing evidence of cooperation between pirate networks, Al-Shabaab, and Houthi intermediaries, with pirates acting as fundraisers. The maritime industry has been urged to strictly re-implement Best Management Practices (BMP5), including vessel hardening, citadel readiness, and armed security teams.

A Climate-Fuelled Hunger Catastrophe

Compounding the man-made crises is a relentless climate disaster. The Federal Government declared a drought emergency on 10 November 2025, as a fourth consecutive rainy season failed. The UN warns that 4.4 million people – nearly a quarter of the population – will face crisis levels of food insecurity or worse through mid-2026. In Puntland, one of the worst-hit regions, water points have dried up and pastoral settlements stand abandoned.

The response is crippled by a dramatic funding shortfall. The 2025 Humanitarian Response Plan, requiring US$1.42 billion, was only 23.7% funded as of late November. Consequently, the number of people receiving emergency food aid plummeted from 1.1 million in August 2025 to just 350,000 by November. Amnesty International, in a November 2025 report, accused Somali authorities and the international community of failing thousands of climate-displaced people, leaving them without adequate food, water, or healthcare during their displacement.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Somalia terminate its agreements with the UAE?

On 19 January 2026, Somalia’s cabinet terminated all port and security agreements with the United Arab Emirates, citing a review that found the UAE had engaged in actions undermining Somali sovereignty. This follows a period of strained relations and the UAE’s increasing engagement with Somaliland.

Is Somali piracy back to the levels seen in 2011?

Not yet, but there is a clear and dangerous resurgence. Attacks are fewer but demonstrate greater operational range and coordination than in recent years. The use of motherships allows pirates to strike hundreds of miles offshore, and links to militant groups add a new layer of complexity.

How severe is the drought and hunger crisis?

Extremely severe. After four failed rainy seasons, a national drought emergency is in effect. An estimated 4.4 million people are projected to be in acute food insecurity, with 1.85 million children suffering acute malnutrition. Funding cuts are forcing aid agencies to scale back life-saving assistance at the worst possible time.

What is the status of Somaliland?

Somaliland, which declared independence in 1991, is not internationally recognised. However, it functions as a de facto state. Israel’s recognition in December 2025 was a major diplomatic breakthrough for Hargeisa but sharply escalated tensions with Mogadishu, which considers Somaliland part of its territory.