Saxony-Anhalt Prepares for Leadership Change as Election Looms

MAGDEBURG, 28 January 2026 – Saxony-Anhalt’s political landscape is shifting as long-serving Minister-President Reiner Haseloff (CDU) formally steps down from office today. His designated successor, former Economy Minister Sven Schulze, is set to be elected by the state parliament, marking the start of a crucial election year in the eastern German state. All eyes are now on the upcoming Landtag election scheduled for 6 September 2026, where the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will face a significant challenge from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which currently leads in opinion polls.

A Changing of the Guard

After 15 years at the helm, Reiner Haseloff chaired his 733rd and final cabinet meeting on 27 January 2026. The 71-year-old conservative, Germany’s longest-serving state premier, is making way for a generational shift within his party to better position the CDU for the autumn election campaign. Haseloff thanked his coalition partners – the Social Democrats (SPD) and Free Democrats (FDP) – for their cooperation in the so-called “Germany coalition” (black-red-yellow). His successor, Sven Schulze, will present himself to the parliament today for confirmation, entering the campaign as the incumbent Minister-President.

The Electoral Landscape: Polls Point to Tight Race

The political atmosphere in Saxony-Anhalt is charged, with recent surveys indicating a dramatic shift in voter sentiment. The AfD, whose state branch is classified as a “confirmed far-right extremist” organisation by Saxony-Anhalt’s domestic intelligence service, has surged in popularity. The most recent INSA poll from January 2026 shows the AfD leading with 39%, followed by the CDU at 26%. The Left Party (Die Linke) stands at 11%, with the SPD at 8%, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) at 6%, the Greens at 3%, and the FDP at 2%.

This represents a stark reversal from the 2021 state election result, where the CDU secured a commanding victory with 37.1% of the vote against the AfD’s 20.8%. The current “Germany coalition” of CDU, SPD, and FDP would, according to current projections, lose its parliamentary majority, securing only an estimated 36.1% of the seats.

Key Facts & Historical Context

Strategic Challenges and the “Firewall”

The election is seen as a critical test for Germany’s long-standing political “firewall” against the far-right. While the CDU leadership, including federal leader Friedrich Merz, has publicly ruled out cooperation with the AfD, tensions exist at the local level. Some CDU district associations, such as in the Harz region, have passed resolutions in favour of collaboration. A CDU-AfD coalition would command a theoretical majority based on current polls but would represent a historic break with post-war German political tradition.

Other potential coalitions appear mathematically difficult. A repeat of the current three-party alliance is projected to fall short. A grand coalition (CDU-SPD) would also lack a majority unless joined by a third party. The rise of the BSW, led nationally by Sahra Wagenknecht, adds another variable, though its programmatic proximity to the AfD on issues like migration has complicated its role as a potential coalition partner for the centre-left.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is likely to be the next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt?

Sven Schulze (CDU) is almost certain to be elected Minister-President on 28 January 2026, succeeding Reiner Haseloff. He will lead the state government into the September election campaign as the incumbent.

Could the AfD lead the next state government?

While the AfD is currently leading in polls and could emerge as the strongest party in September, forming a government would require coalition partners. All other parties in the current Landtag – CDU, SPD, FDP, Greens, and The Left – have officially ruled out entering a coalition with the AfD. This makes an AfD-led government unlikely unless this political cordon sanitaire breaks.

What are the main issues in the election campaign?

Key issues include managing the economic structural change away from coal, the rising cost of living, migration, and internal security. The state also faces demographic challenges, with a declining and ageing population. The AfD has focused on criticising the federal government’s policies, while the CDU under Schulze is expected to campaign on stability and economic modernisation.

What was the result of the last Saxony-Anhalt state election?

In the 6 June 2021 election, the CDU won a decisive victory with 37.1% of the vote (40 seats). The AfD came second with 20.8% (23 seats), followed by The Left (11.0%, 12 seats), SPD (8.4%, 9 seats), FDP (6.4%, 7 seats), and Greens (5.9%, 6 seats). Voter turnout was 60.3%.