Eli Lilly Shares Surge Following Record Q4 Earnings and Upbeat 2026 Forecast
INDIANAPOLIS / FRANKFURT, 4 February 2026 – Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has reported fourth-quarter financial results for 2025 that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations, propelled by the explosive demand for its incretin therapies, Mounjaro and Zepbound. The pharmaceutical giant also issued a robust outlook for 2026, cementing its position as the world’s most valuable healthcare company.
Blockbuster Sales Drive Revenue Growth
The Indianapolis-based drugmaker reported a staggering 53.9% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching $17.6 billion for the final quarter of 2025. This performance was underpinned by the rapid adoption of its obesity treatment, Zepbound, and its diabetes counterpart, Mounjaro. Zepbound alone generated $4.26 billion in U.S. revenue, a 122% increase compared to the previous year.
Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter came in at $7.54, comfortably beating the consensus estimate of $6.93. Investors reacted positively to the news, with the stock trading near the $1,033.30 mark during Wednesday’s opening session, reflecting a market capitalisation that continues to hover around the historic $1 trillion threshold.
2026 Outlook and Market Dominance
Looking ahead, Eli Lilly has provided a bullish forecast for the 2026 fiscal year. The company expects full-year sales to range between $80 billion and $83 billion, surpassing the average analyst estimate of $77.7 billion. This optimistic guidance stems from increased manufacturing capacity, which aims to alleviate the supply constraints that have previously limited the availability of its weight-loss injections.
In the competitive landscape, Lilly appears to be widening the gap with its primary rival, Novo Nordisk. Analysts note that while both companies are beneficiaries of the “obesity gold rush,” Lilly’s diversified pipeline and aggressive scaling of Zepbound have provided a distinct advantage in the North American market.
Key Financial Metrics: Q4 2025
| Metric | Reported Value (Q4 2025) |
|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $17.6 Billion (+53.9% YoY) |
| Adjusted EPS | $7.54 (vs. $6.93 expected) |
| Mounjaro Sales | $7.41 Billion |
| Zepbound Sales | $4.26 Billion |
| 2026 Revenue Guidance | $80 Billion – $83 Billion |
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the Eli Lilly stock price rising?
The stock is rising due to a significant “earnings beat” in Q4 2025 and a higher-than-expected profit forecast for 2026. The primary drivers are the weight-loss drug Zepbound and the diabetes drug Mounjaro, both of which saw sales more than double over the past year.
What is the current analyst consensus for LLY?
Most analysts maintain a “Strong Buy” or “Buy” rating on Eli Lilly. Following the latest earnings report, price targets have been adjusted, with some analysts projecting an upside of approximately 15% to 16%, targeting prices between $1,150 and $1,500 per share.
How does Eli Lilly compare to Novo Nordisk?
While both companies dominate the GLP-1 receptor agonist market, Eli Lilly’s recent quarterly growth of 53.9% has outpaced many competitors. Lilly’s 2026 guidance suggests it is successfully scaling production to meet global demand more effectively than its rivals.