Frederiksen at a Crossroads: Denmark’s Prime Minister Faces Defining Year
COPENHAGEN, 27 January 2026 – Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen enters 2026 facing the most severe political test of her career. Once hailed for her steady crisis leadership, the Social Democrat leader now governs an unpopular centrist coalition while her party languishes in opinion polls. With a general election due this year, Frederiksen’s political future and the stability of her unprecedented “SVM” government hang in the balance.
A Legacy Forged in Crisis
Mette Frederiksen, Denmark’s youngest-ever prime minister, rose to power in June 2019. Her initial tenure was defined by navigating successive national emergencies. She steered the country through the COVID-19 pandemic, though her government’s handling of a mink cull later resulted in a parliamentary reprimand. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine prompted a dramatic shift in her foreign policy, transforming her from a noted EU-sceptic into a vocal advocate for European defence cooperation and a staunch supporter of Kyiv.
This security focus became the cornerstone of her second term. After the November 2022 election, where the Social Democrats achieved their best result in two decades, Frederiksen broke with tradition. Instead of forming a left-leaning minority government, she created a centrist coalition with the centre-right Venstre and the Moderates—the first such cross-bloc government in over four decades. Dubbed the “SVM” government, it was billed as an experiment in national unity for turbulent times.
The Coalition Under Strain
The SVM government’s unity has been tested by its own policies and a shifting political landscape. An early and deeply unpopular decision was the 2023 abolition of the Great Prayer Day public holiday to help fund increased defence spending. This move, seen by many as unnecessary during a period of strong economic growth, alienated traditional Social Democratic voters and trade unions.
Recent polling indicates severe headwinds. Surveys suggest the three governing parties combined would secure only around 35% of the vote, far short of a parliamentary majority. The Social Democrats themselves have seen support plummet to near or below 20% in some polls, a stark decline from their 2022 result of 27.5%. This decline was crystallised in the November 2025 municipal elections, where the party lost the mayoralty of Copenhagen after more than a century of control, ceding ground to the left-wing Socialist People’s Party and Red-Green Alliance.
Key Policies and Political Positioning
| Policy Area | Frederiksen Government’s Stance |
|---|---|
| Migration & Asylum | Pursued one of Europe’s most restrictive regimes, aiming for “zero asylum seekers,” supporting offshore processing, and aligning with hardline EU voices. A defining, controversial hallmark of her tenure. |
| Defence & Security | Oversaw a historic military build-up, committing Denmark to NATO’s 2% GDP target and planning increases beyond 3%. Abolished the EU defence opt-out via referendum and extended conscription to women. |
| Climate & Green Transition | Set a legally binding 70% emissions reduction target by 2030 but faced criticism for a “hockey stick” implementation model that delays major cuts. Introduced a world-first tax on agricultural emissions. |
| Welfare & Economy | Combined strict migration policy with left-leaning economic measures, such as early retirement for long-time workers (“Arne Pension”), while managing a strong economy with low unemployment. |
The 2026 Challenge: An Election and Geopolitics
Frederiksen’s New Year’s Address on 1 January 2026 struck a reflective and somewhat defensive tone. She admitted her government had not done enough to address rising food prices and promised targeted relief. She also announced a planned deportation reform for foreign nationals convicted of serious crimes, signalling a continued hard line on law and order.
Simultaneously, she faces renewed external pressure. The long-simmering geopolitical issue of Greenland has resurfaced, with the US administration expressing renewed interest in the autonomous Danish territory. In a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Frederiksen firmly stated Denmark was open to negotiation on security and investment in Greenland, but “we cannot negotiate our very fundamental values, sovereignty, the identity of our countries and our borders.”
As the year progresses, Frederiksen must rally a fractured coalition, reconnect with a disaffected electoral base, and define a compelling platform for the impending election. Her ability to stage a political comeback, or her failure to do so, will determine not only her legacy but also the next chapter for Denmark’s unique experiment in centrist governance.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the “SVM” government?
It is the centrist coalition formed by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen after the 2022 election, comprising the Social Democrats (S), the centre-right Venstre (V), and the Moderates (M). It marked a break from Denmark’s traditional left-bloc/right-bloc politics.
Why has Mette Frederiksen’s popularity declined?
Analysts cite several factors: unpopular policies like scrapping a public holiday; voter fatigue after years of crisis management; alienation of left-wing voters due to the coalition with right-wing parties; and a perception that the government is out of touch on cost-of-living issues despite a strong economy.
What is the “Greenland crisis” mentioned?
It refers to renewed geopolitical tension as the US administration has shown interest in acquiring or exerting greater control over Greenland, an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark. Frederiksen has firmly rejected any negotiation over Danish and Greenlandic sovereignty.
When is the next Danish general election?
The next election must be held by 2026. The exact date is at the prime minister’s discretion, but it is widely expected to take place sometime this year given the current political climate.