The End of the American Order? Robert Kagan’s Dire Warning for 2026
BERLIN, 18 February 2026 — As the 62nd Munich Security Conference concludes, the intellectual landscape of transatlantic relations is being dominated by the sobering assessments of Robert Kagan. The neoconservative scholar and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow has sparked intense debate across Europe this week, following a series of high-profile interventions in which he declared the United States a “hostile and potentially predatory nation” under the current administration.
A “Hostile” Superpower: The Atlantic Thesis
In a seminal column published in The Atlantic on 12 February 2026, Kagan argued that the foundational pillars of the liberal international order have been systematically dismantled over the past year. According to Kagan, the shift in Washington is not merely a temporary policy pivot but a fundamental transformation of the American state’s role in global affairs.
Kagan’s latest thesis suggests that the U.S. has moved from being the guarantor of global stability to a disruptive force. He warns that the “American order that was” has been destroyed, leaving longtime allies in Europe and Asia to navigate a world where the primary superpower may now act with predatory intent toward the very systems it once created.
The Amanpour Interview: Warnings of Domestic Instability
Expanding on his written work, Kagan appeared on CNN with Christiane Amanpour on Friday, 13 February 2026. During the interview, he shifted focus to the domestic implications of the current political climate in the United States. Kagan, a historian by training, expressed grave concerns regarding the upcoming midterm elections.
He warned that the groundwork is being laid to prevent a democratic transfer of power or the recognition of opposition victories. Kagan described recent executive actions as following a “textbook dictator” trajectory, suggesting that the erosion of domestic democratic norms is inextricably linked to the aggressive posture the U.S. has adopted internationally.
Academic and Professional Background
Robert Kagan remains one of the most influential foreign policy architects of the last three decades. His career spans prestigious academic institutions and influential think tanks, providing him with a platform that commands attention in both Washington and Brussels.
Educational Credentials
- Yale University: Bachelor of Arts.
- Harvard University: Master of Public Policy from the Kennedy School of Government.
- American University: Doctorate in American History.
Institutional Affiliations
Kagan currently serves as a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, specifically within the Project on International Order and Strategy. He has previously held positions as a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and as a transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
Selected Bibliography
Kagan’s influence is largely rooted in his ability to synthesise historical trends into contemporary geopolitical warnings. The following table outlines his major published works:
| Book Title | Release Year | Core Theme |
|---|---|---|
| Of Paradise and Power | 2003 | The divergence between American and European worldviews. |
| The World America Made | 2012 | A defence of the liberal international order. |
| The Jungle Grows Back | 2018 | The inevitable return of authoritarianism if democracy is not defended. |
| Ghost at the Feast | 2023 | America’s role in the world from 1900 to 1941. |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Is Robert Kagan a Democrat or a Republican?
Robert Kagan is traditionally identified as a neoconservative. While he served in the State Department during the Reagan administration, he has become a prominent critic of the modern Republican Party’s “America First” isolationism, leading many to describe him as an independent or a “never-Trump” conservative.
What is Robert Kagan’s most famous theory?
He is best known for the “Mars vs. Venus” analogy from Of Paradise and Power, which suggests that the United States (Mars) relies on military might to solve problems, while Europe (Venus) prefers international law and diplomacy.
What did Robert Kagan say about the 2026 midterms?
In February 2026, Kagan warned that the current administration might not allow the opposition to take control of Congress even if they win the popular vote, citing a systematic effort to undermine electoral integrity.
Where does Robert Kagan currently work?
He is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and a contributing columnist for The Washington Post.